America’s fertility is usually in precipitous decline. Our team of forecasters at Demographic Intelligence projects 3.84 million births in 2017, down via about 3.95 million in 2016.
along with This particular’s likely to fall further — far short of what women themselves say they want for their family size.
The latest data via the Centers for Disease Control along with Prevention, reflecting births as of the year ending in September 2017, shows the total fertility rate at 1.77 lifetime births per woman, down 3.8 percent since 2015, along with down 16.4 percent since its most recent peak at 2.12 in 2007. (The replacement rate in developed countries is usually around 2.1.)
The total fertility rate is usually a measure of how many children a woman entering her reproductive years today could expect to have, if age-specific fertility rates remain constant over time.
In additional words, This particular’s a very simplistic forecast of lifetime births. nevertheless there is usually a lot which the available data can reveal.
The fertility rate has increased for women over 40, along with the generation of women finishing up their childbearing years right now had more children than their mothers did, nevertheless which isn’t likely to be true for their daughters. The key factors driving down the birthrate are not mysterious: The pregnancy rate among young women is usually falling, along with has been for years.
nevertheless what began as sharp declines in pregnancy along with childbearing among teenagers — typically considered a socially desirable result — has slowly spread up the age cohorts, first to women in their early 20s, then to those in their late 20s. along with right now fertility decline has set in for women even in their 30s. Far via reversing as America grew out of economic recession, This particular lost fertility has worsened.
A key factor is usually which marriage is usually increasingly being postponed. Total fertility rates controlling for marital status have not changed very much over the last 15 years. nevertheless with marriage coming later, the share of women at peak childbearing ages (20 to 40) who are married has steadily fallen.
As millennials in particular take their time to pair up, the average age of first birth is usually rising steadily. Today, the average age of a woman at first birth is usually over 26 years old. along with while which is usually much higher than from the past, many European countries have an average age of first birth over 30, so there seems a lot more room to rise. In fact, the United States has the youngest age of first childbirth of any developed country.
Beyond delayed marriage, unmarried births are falling, too. Wider usage of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) is usually especially helping unmarried women avoid unintended pregnancy (via 1.5 percent LARC usage in 2002 to 7.2 percent in 2011-2013).
along with the increasing availability along with usage of emergency contraceptives (which some consider to be abortions nevertheless are not counted in official abortion statistics) further reduces the likelihood of implantation (via 1 percent emergency contraceptive usage in 1995 to 11 percent in 2006-2010).
nevertheless while most everyone can agree which reducing unintended pregnancy is usually a not bad thing, there have been relatively few innovations in technology or social structure to enable desired parenting.
Technologies such as in vitro fertilization, ovulation-enhancing medicines, egg storage along with artificial insemination have been around for decades right now, along with remain extremely expensive in many cases. one particular attempt of even a very simple assisted-conception procedure can cost thousands of dollars, with even higher costs for more involved procedures, often not covered by insurance.
Meanwhile, the share of the childless population assisting in parenting along with child care is usually in steady decline. (The data show which parents are overwhelmed, along with assists via friends along with family can be a big help). Americans are improving their ability to avoid unwanted pregnancies far faster than they are improving the ability to achieve desired pregnancy.
As a result, the gap between the number of children which women say they want to have (2.7) along with the number of children they will probably actually have (1.8) has risen to the highest level in 40 years.
Sometimes, This particular’s the little things which drive these trends. For example, Americans across many ages along with marital statuses are having less sex than they used to.
Data via the General Social Survey shows which the share of people 18 to 30 who have not had sex from the past year has risen to nearly 20 percent today, via about 10 percent between 1990 along with 2010, while the share having sex at least two times a month has fallen to about 65 percent, via about 75 percent via 1990 to 2010.
Diminished face-to-face interaction, along with possibly increased use of pornography, may explain the fall in sex, along with both of those trends may be explained by the rise in cellphone usage along with additional screen time.
Smartphone ownership rates have more than doubled for every age group in America since 2010, meaning which almost all of us right now carry a get-out-of-human-interaction-free card in our pockets 24/7.
nevertheless these are all long-term trends. What’s driving the decline right right now?
Answering which question may be more about where than what. Using census population estimates by sex along with age for states along with creating some simple extrapolations to monthly data, we can make a reasonable guess of where birthrates per-childbearing-age-woman are falling or rising most. The map below shows an estimate of the change from the share of childbearing-age-women who had a birth from the previous year, which demographers call the general fertility rate.
As you can see, the steepest declines have been in Western states, especially previously high fertility states like Utah. Only Alabama along with Connecticut have posted any likely increase in their general fertility rate over the last three years. Connecticut’s fertility rate has been roughly tied for lowest from the nation for several years, however, so a smaller gain isn’t saying much. Alabama’s increase is usually more interesting, nevertheless peaked in late 2015 along with has been declining since.
As millennials slowly begin to transition toward marriage along with homeownership, children may come, too. nevertheless This particular’s unlikely any future baby boom will be able to fully offset the baby bust of the last 10 years. Many will cheer This particular development, pointing to overpopulation along with the stress put on the environment. nevertheless very real problems could develop via lower fertility which many might not see coming, like difficulty meeting Social Security obligations, caring for older people along with maintaining economic growth.
Regardless of your view, millennial women are likely to experience the largest shortfall in achieved fertility versus their stated family desires of any generation in a long time, unless something improvements soon.
Lyman Stone is usually an economist who writes about demographics along with population economics. He is usually an adviser at Demographic Intelligence, along with does commodity analysis from the Department of Agriculture. He blogs at In a State of Migration, along with you can follow him on Twitter at @lymanstoneky.