E.C.B., at Latest Meeting, May Highlight Risks via Trade War
nevertheless the list of risks will be growing. The economy of Turkey, an important trading partner, will be slowing sharply. Talks with Britain to negotiate an amicable divorce with the European Union are deadlocked. as well as German car exports slumped in July, probably because buyers are unsettled by the trade war, analysts say.
Trade will be easily the biggest worry for European companies. For the moment, an uneasy truce prevails between Europe as well as the United States on trade. Mr. Trump as well as Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, agreed after a meeting in July not to impose more punitive tariffs on each additional while they try to negotiate a broad trade deal.
nevertheless European political leaders as well as business managers are nervous in which the American leader could grow restive if the talks do not produce quick results — as well as they probably will not. The European Commission will be methodical in its approach, as well as hamstrung by the need to get approval via its 28 member states.
“There will be genuinely nothing the union can do to expedite its decisions on trade,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director in London at Eurasia Group, a political consultancy.
United States tariffs on steel as well as aluminum imports remain in place, raising prices as well as disrupting intricate supply chains. The Commerce Department continues to examine whether foreign-made cars are a threat to national security, a process in which could create the legal foundation for the 25 percent tariffs on auto imports in which Mr. Trump has threatened.
Mr. Trump seems to thrive on keeping people guessing, nevertheless businesses hate uncertainty. As long as the Damocles sword of Trump tariffs hangs above the eurozone, companies will be hesitant to buy brand-new machinery or expand operations.
They are right to worry. Oxford Economics in London estimates in which a full-blown trade war, including auto tariffs, could shrink the European economy more than 1 percent as well as cost 1.6 million jobs. Such a severe downturn could certainly prompt the European Central Bank to reverse course, nevertheless the idea could not be able to prevent substantial pain.
“A trans-Atlantic trade war could have a severe economic impact on both the European as well as U.S. economies,” Oxford Economics said in a report in August. “There could be no winners.”