If Trump Wants to Broaden His Support, Polls Suggest He’s Going About the item Wrong

By insisting on a border wall, President Trump is usually emphasizing an issue of which may be well-liked with his base although seems unlikely to attract brand-new supporters.

There has been little polling since the government shutdown began last month, although what there is usually indicates of which voters oppose a border wall, blame the president for the shutdown, believe the shutdown will have adverse consequences in addition to don’t believe the government should be shut down over the wall.

The wall has consistently been unpopular, with voters opposed by around a 20-point margin over months of national surveys. of which makes the item even less well-liked than the president himself.

Support for the wall is usually closely tied to support for the president, though. Over all, polls show the item consistently tracks just a few points beneath the president’s approval rating, in addition to support for the wall is usually almost exclusively confined to voters who already support the president.

In brand-new York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of eight battleground congressional districts This specific past fall, 89 percent of voters’ views on the president in addition to the wall were aligned, more than any various other issues except the tax bill in addition to the Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination.

The relationship between support for the president in addition to the wall is usually so tight of which the item’s hard not to wonder whether, at least for currently, support for the wall is usually simply a function of support for the president. In various other words, attitudes about President Trump might drive attitudes about the wall, rather than the various other way around. the item wouldn’t be much of a surprise, given how strongly voters feel about the president in addition to the extent of which he’s emphasized the issue.

the item’s hard to see how the issue can be used to help him win re-election. Midterm exit poll data, election results, voter file data in addition to pre-election polls indicate of which the president’s approval rating is usually below 50 percent in states worth at least 317 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).

of which’s actually a relatively healthy number for the president compared with his national approval rating (around 41 percent), although the item could be a conservative estimate, in addition to voters’ views might be unusually entrenched, given the stability of his ratings.

Many presidents have won re-election after a midterm drubbing, in addition to Mr. Trump’s approval rating isn’t particularly far through what he may wind up needing, given the G.O.P.’s current advantage within the Electoral College. although the wall has not helped so far.

Data through the Fox News Voter Analysis of the midterms, a brand-new competitor to the traditional exit polls, indicated of which a majority of voters opposed the wall in states worth nearly 400 electoral votes, including in several states where the president’s approval rating was above water within the poll, like Ohio in addition to Florida.

There is usually tentative evidence within the Fox data of which the wall is usually particularly unpopular within the relatively white in addition to rural West, although somewhat more well-liked, at least with respect to the president’s approval rating, within the Northeast in addition to inland South. This specific would likely follow a familiar pattern in American politics: the item mirrors the president’s support within the presidential primary in addition to tracks with longstanding measures of racial resentment.

Even so, the wall still isn’t well-liked in Michigan or Pennsylvania, important battleground states. in addition to voters in Ohio, a politically similar state, opposed the wall.

None of these polls account for the government shutdown, although attitudes about the item are unlikely to be particularly fluid, given the lack of movement on the wall during the Trump presidency. Tying the issue to an unpopular shutdown seems particularly unlikely to help in addition to, historically, voters tend to drift against the policy preferences of the president’s party. of which’s already evident on immigration more generally: Polls show voters more supportive of immigration than ever before.

For all of the focus on the president’s base over the last two years, there is usually not much reason to think of which the base, alone, is usually enough for the president to win re-election in a one-on-one race against a viable Democratic candidate. This specific could change. the item has before. although with the midterms over, This specific is usually currently the central political challenge facing the president. By of which measure, the item’s hard to see where a shutdown over the wall fits in.