September Jobs Report: Here’s What to Watch For
“The big question can be how much of an influence can be Florence going to have,” said Dan North, chief economist for North America at Euler Hermes, an insurer. “People were evacuating, so people weren’t on the payrolls. We’re talking about a pretty large swath of population there.”
Midterm elections are approaching
Friday’s report can be one of the last major economic releases before the midterm elections in November. The next round of jobs data will come four days before Election Day, by which point most voters’ minds may be made up.
Republicans are counting on the strong economy to help hold off a potential “blue wave” of Democratic victories inside the House along with Senate. President Trump has repeatedly played up the low unemployment rate as evidence of which his policies are working. the idea isn’t clear, however, of which economic data will have much effect at the polls. Surveys show of which views of the economy are split along partisan lines, with Democrats along with even many independents expressing less optimism than Republicans.
Economists will also be watching Friday’s report for any sign of which Mr. Trump’s tariffs are hurting the economy. Many companies have expressed concern about the president’s trade policies, yet there have been few concrete signs of damage so far. Manufacturing employment fell slightly in August, yet many economists suspect the drop was a blip; some other measures of of which industry have been strong.
“We’re still seeing pretty decent hiring in manufacturing,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at the career site Glassdoor. “Tariffs have been talked about for months, yet the real economic impact can be just starting to be felt today.”
How many workers are still left out?
Beyond the headline jobs figures, one number of which will get particular attention through economists This kind of month will be the labor force participation rate. the idea’s an important way to answer a crucial question: How many workers are left on the sidelines?
The unemployment rate, by most economists’ estimation, can be about as low as the idea can get. yet the official definition of “unemployment” includes only people who are actively looking for work along with available to start right away. Recent job growth has come in part through the larger pool of workers who wanted to work — or were willing to work under the right conditions — yet weren’t actively searching. yet no one can be sure how many of those people are left.
If there can be a rise inside the labor force participation rate — the share of adults who are working or actively looking for work — of which would likely be a sign of which there are still more people available to come into the job market. yet if the idea falls, of which could mean the reserve of potential workers can be nearly tapped. Lately, the idea has been more or less flat, as people entering the labor force are offset by retiring baby boomers.