Trump Loves the fresh Nafta. Congress Doesn’t.

WASHINGTON — President Trump lauded his fresh trade agreement with Canada as well as Mexico in his State of the Union address on Tuesday as well as urged Congress to pass the revised pact. The deal, he argued, will help American farmers as well as workers as well as ensure “in which more cars are proudly stamped with the four beautiful words: Made inside the U.S.A.”

nevertheless the pact, which replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement, can be currently stalled in Congress, as well as both Democrats as well as Republicans say in which has little chance of passing without significant adjustments. Democrats say the deal does not go far enough to protect workers as well as the environment, while Republicans say in which goes too far in restricting trade, particularly inside the auto sector.

The stalemate has some business leaders increasingly worried in which the administration lacks a winning strategy to move the revised deal through a divided Congress, in a year when a prolonged government shutdown has further eroded what little inclination Democrats as well as Republicans had to work together on large pieces of legislation.

“Partisan rancor has made in which more difficult to see any kind of major legislation move forward, including on trade,” said John Murphy, senior vice president for international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said late last week in which he was “doubtful” in which the deal, also known as the U.S.M.C.A., could pass Congress given the concerns via both sides of the aisle.

“in which’s hard for me to see how in which’s a priority for Nancy Pelosi to give Donald Trump what could be his biggest economic policy victory, certainly since tax reform,” Mr. Toomey, one of Mr. Trump’s most vocal critics on trade, said in an interview.

Privately, some congressional Democrats remain hopeful in which the agreement can pass, particularly if negotiations with the administration continue to fly under the radar. Mr. Trump must still submit the agreement — along with legislation laying out how in which could be put in place — to Congress.

as well as administration officials continue to insist in which the deal will ultimately get approved. “We are confident in which Congress will approve U.S.M.C.A.,” a spokesman for the United States trade representative said in an email. “in which was negotiated in close consultation with Democrats as well as Republicans, as well as enjoys overwhelming support via the business community as well as farm groups.”

nevertheless big hurdles remain to achieving bipartisan consensus in which could allow the pact to move through Congress. Mr. Toomey said he could not support the deal without “significant” adjustments inside the implementing legislation. The fresh agreement inhibits free trade, he said, citing fresh wage requirements on automobile manufacturing as a particular concern.

as well as many Republicans, including Mr. Toomey as well as Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security as well as Governmental Affairs Committee, say they want the White House to remove steel as well as aluminum tariffs on Canada as well as Mexico because Mr. Trump had reached a deal with the two countries.

Mr. Trump has so far refused to budge on the metal tariffs as well as has instead threatened to withdraw via Nafta to try to force Congress to vote on the fresh trade deal. A formal notice of withdrawal could give Congress six months to pass the pact or potentially return to a pre-Nafta trading system with higher tariffs as well as more restrictive trade barriers.

Republicans are warning in which such a move most likely falls outside Mr. Trump’s authority as well as could only reduce the chances of Congress passing the U.S.M.C.A.

“I imagine you’d have a huge sell-off in equities as well as have very, very disrupted financial markets,” Mr. Toomey said. “I sure trust the president does not go down in which road.”

Republican strategists say in which unless Mr. Trump agrees to compromise, he will most likely face defeat.

“The president has two options on This kind of trade deal: the honey or the hammer,” said Antonia Ferrier, a Republican strategist with Definers Public Affairs as well as a former aide to the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Mr. Trump, she said, could bargain with Ms. Pelosi or withdraw via Nafta. “Neither are great options,” she said, “which can be why there’s so much skepticism in which U.S.M.C.A. will even happen.”

Democrats — including populists who tend to side more with Mr. Trump than Mr. Toomey on trade issues — say they are open to working with the administration to improve as well as pass the agreement. Party leaders have had productive discussions with Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, to reinforce the need for negotiators to secure additional labor as well as environmental protections before any floor vote.

“I’ve talked to Lighthizer. I’ve told him, unless there’s strong enforcement, Nafta’s not going to pass the Senate,” said Senator Chuck Schumer of fresh York, the Democratic leader. “He’s aware of in which as well as says there are things they can do.”

The Trump administration spent more than a year negotiating with Canada as well as Mexico to try to salvage Nafta, a 25-year-old pact in which has become critical to the North American economy, particularly the automobile as well as agriculture sectors. The agreement expanded the flow of goods as well as capital between the three countries, as well as prompted multinational corporations to stretch their supply chains up as well as down the continent.

While Mr. Trump had long threatened to rip up Nafta, the business community as well as many Republican lawmakers pushed to keep in which intact, insisting in which doing away with the pact could ultimately hurt the United States economy. The fresh deal, which was agreed to in September, primarily updates Nafta nevertheless contains some fresh provisions, including requiring higher wages at automakers as well as greater ability to sell dairy products in Canada.

Mr. Toomey said he remained deeply concerned in which the administration had not rolled back the steel as well as aluminum tariffs in which in which had imposed on Canada as well as Mexico after the trilateral trade agreement was reached last year.

He can be working on bipartisan legislation in which could curtail Mr. Trump’s ability to impose tariffs on the basis of national security — which the president used to justify the steel as well as aluminum tariffs — without congressional approval. The president could almost certainly veto such a measure.